Coronavirus: Chinese stock markets stabilize. Recovery expected by year’s end

Shanghai and Shenzhen almost recovered to pre-Lunar New Year levels. The Chinese authorities continue to inject liquidity into the system. The country's economy is expected to grow 5.5% in 2020, after a drop in the first quarter.

Beijing (AsiaNews / Agencies) - Shanghai and Shenzhen rebounded in the mid-afternoon (+ 0.38% the former, + 0.44% ) following yesterday’s slowdown, which analysts maintain was due to the surge in Wuhan coronavirus infections and victims.

The Chinese stock exchanges continue to recover after the collapse of 3 February on the heels of the epidemic crisis which has so far caused nearly 64,000 deaths and around 1400 victims.

Ten days after their reopening, they are now approaching the pre-lunar New Year levels given the closure imposed by the government. The recovery is attributed to the liquidity injections decided by the authorities. After a first stimulus of 1000 billion yuan (158 billion euros), the People's Bank of China issued short-term bonds worth 30 billion yuan (about 4 billion euros) on the international market.

The International Monetary Fund expects the Chinese economy (and also the global economy) to recover in the second half of the year. The Fund's general manager, Kristalina Georgieva, said on February 13 that according to a first estimate, the world's second largest economy should quickly make up for the losses it has incurred in this period.

A group of 40 economists interviewed by Reuters predicts that Chinese GDP growth will drop to 4.5% from 6% the previous year in the first quarter of 2020, if the spread of the virus is limited by early spring, the level lowest since 1990. For the whole year it is estimated at 5.5%, far from the targets set by the government. In the worst-case scenario, with a crisis that continues over time, growth in the first quarter should reach 3.5%, and settle at around 5% for the whole of 2020.

Given its growing development in recent years, the service sector is the one that could suffer the greatest damage from the protracted economic stalemate in which the country is languishing.